ASSESSMENT OF DEMAND FOR PASSENGER AIR CARRIAGE

Abstract

The article is devoted to technique of assessment and forecasting of passenger demand that air carriers can attend. It is based on two models. The first one is structural econometric and is used to determine the «effective» part of population who can afford services of air companies. The second one is mathematical and is used to reveal and differentiate by objectives the groups of «frequent» and «rare» passengers. The suggested methods permit to achieve sufficiently substantiated reference points for the market of air carriage referring to adaptive scenarios of economic development of the country. The necessity of mathematical model is explained by deficiency of reliable statistical data on the number of passengers who travel respective times per year. The techniques are intended first of all for the regions with developing markets of air carriage.