CHOICE OF METHODS FOR FORECASTING REGIONAL PASSENGER FLOWS

Abstract

[For the English abstract and full text of the article please see the attached PDF-File (English version follows Russian version)].ABSTRACT In the system of railway traffic organization, the forecast of passenger flows is an information and analytical basis for development of train schedule and calculation of train schemes. For making sound management decisions, high accuracy of the forecast and a methodological base that meets modern conditions are necessary. The article is devoted to the study of the methods of calculation of passenger traffic, taking into account the specifics of their formation in the federal entities of the Russian Federation. A classification of regions according to the characteristics and trends in development of demand is proposed. The choice of an approach to forecasting the volumes of intraregional demand was carried out on the basis of the algorithm developed by the authors. The results of calculations are presented and the areas of application of forecast methods are determined depending on the local features identified. Keywords: railway, regional passenger flow, traffic forecast, local transport market, demand trends.