METHODS OF FORECASTING PROSPECTS OF INVENTIONS' COMMERCIALIZATION
Abstract
New approaches are given to forecasting based on decision support systems, the mathematical core of which is analytic hierarchy process with dynamic judgments and analytical networks method, allowing to prioritize alternatives in terms
of mutual influence. Examples of forecasting prospects for spring suspension systems for highspeed rolling stock are considered. The dependences of dimension of information and tasks related to assessment of decisions complex on their consequences are identified.
About the Authors
A. V. Andreychikov
Moscow State University of Railway Engineering (MIIT), Moscow, Russia.
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
O. N. Andreychikova
CEMI of RAS, Moscow, Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
E. V. Tabunov
Moscow State University of Railway Engineering (MIIT), Moscow, Russia.
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Saaty, T. L. Decision-making. Hierarchy analysis method. Moscow, Radio i svjaz' publ., 1989, 316 p.
2. Larichev, O. I. Theory and methods of decision-making, as well as the Chronicle in Magical Lands [ Teorija i metody prinjatija reshenij, a takzhe Hronika sobytij v Vol-shebnyh Stranah]. Moscow, Logos publ., 2000, 296 p.
3. Andreichikov, A. V., Andreichikova, О. N. Analysis, synthesis, planning of decisions in the economy [Analiz, sintez, planirovanie reshenij v ekonomike]. Moscow, Fi-nansy i statistikapubl., 2004, 368 p.
4. Saaty, T. L. Decision Making With Dependence And Feedback: The Analytic Network Process, Pittsburgh: RWS Publications, 2001, 370 p.
5. Andreichicov, A. V., Andreichicova, О. N. A choice of a perspective system for vibration isolation in conditions of varying environment, Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process ISAHP'2001, Bern, Switzerland, 2001, pp. 13-24.
6. Keeney, R. L., Raiffa, H. Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. Moscow, Radio i svjaz'publ., 1981,560 р.
7. Neumann, J. von, Morgenstern, O. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Moscow, Naukapubl., 1970,708 p.
8. Andreichikov, A. V., Andreichikova, O. N. System analysis and synthesis of strategic decisions in innovation: Basics of strategic innovation management and marketing [Sistemnyj analiz i sintez strategicheskih reshenij v innovatike: Osnovy strategicheskogo innovadonnogo menedzhmenta i mar-ketinga]. Moscow, Librokom publ., 2011, 248 p.
9. Andreichikov, A. V., Andreichikova, O. N. System analysis and synthesis of strategic decisions in innovation: Conceptual design of innovative systems [Sistemnyj analiz i sintez strategicheskih reshenij v innovatike: Konceptual'noe proektirovanie innovacionnyh system]. Moscow, Librokom publ., 2013,432 р.
10. Andreichikov, A. V., Andreichikova, O. N. Strategic management in innovation organizations. System analysis and decision making [Strategicheskij menedzhment v innovacionnyh organizacijah. Sistemnyj analiz iprinjatie reshenij]. Moscow, Infra-Mpubl., 2013,396 p.
11. Andreychikov, A. V., Markov, D. S., Astashkina, L. A. Intelligent System for Strategic Decisions. World of Transport and Transportation, Vol. 12, 2014, Iss. 5, pp. 130-145.
Review
For citations:
Andreychikov A.V., Andreychikova O.N., Tabunov E.V. METHODS OF FORECASTING PROSPECTS OF INVENTIONS' COMMERCIALIZATION. World of Transport and Transportation. 2015;13(6):6-21.
Views:
247
Email this article 