Modelling the Assessment of the Potential Changes in Air Transportation Rates Based on Cost Components
https://doi.org/10.30932/1992-3252-2024-22-4-12
Abstract
The price of transportation (rate) is one of the key factors in the development of the air transportation system (ATS) of any country, in particular of the Russian Federation. In turn, the formation of the rate directly depends on the cost price of transportation and its components. Forecasting and modelling the cost prices considering the influence of external factors allows us to obtain an assessment of the potential of changing the rate, which can be used as an indicator of the direction of ATS development and adjustments to improve its efficiency.
The objective of the study is to develop a model for assessment of the potential of changes in air transportation rates in the Russian Federation in the 2030–2040 period for the fleet of foreign-made mainline aircraft. The assessment of the potential for rate changes is based on changes in the most significant external components of the cost price of transportation, such as fuel cost, annual flight time, cost of maintenance and repair. The choice of components is due to their greatest exposure to the influence of long-term factors.
Using mathematical modelling and economic and mathematical methods, based on statistical and forecast data, the model has been tested for an assessment of the potential change in the value and structure of direct operating costs of mainline aircraft regarding aggregated expense items. Using scenario assumptions, intervals of variation of factors affecting cost price were determined. The result of modelling the potential for change in cost and rates is demonstrated for two groups of mainline commercial aircraft: narrow-body and wide-body.
About the Authors
I. V. Uryupin
Federal Research Centre «Computer Science and Control» of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Ilya V. Uryupin - Ph.D. (Physics and Mathematics), Junior Researcher at the Federal Research Centre «Computer Science and Control» of the Russian Academy of Sciences (FRC CSC RAS).
Moscow
Web of Science Researcher ID AIB-5096–2022; Scopus Author ID 57210445072; Russian Science Citation Index Author ID 1137480
A. O. Vlasenko
Inter-Industry Analytical Centre (IAC Ltd.)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Andrey O. Vlasenko - Senior Researcher of LLC Inter-Industry Analytical Centre (IAC ltd.).
Moscow
Russian Science Citation Index Author ID 893078
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For citations:
Uryupin I.V., Vlasenko A.O. Modelling the Assessment of the Potential Changes in Air Transportation Rates Based on Cost Components. World of Transport and Transportation. 2024;22(4):94-103. https://doi.org/10.30932/1992-3252-2024-22-4-12
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