Econometric Model for Forecasting Cargo Turnover at Seaports

The seaport, being a complex economic system, meets the needs of a country’s economy in sea transportation. Being in close interaction with railway and road transport, seaports take an active part in solving the problem of delivering goods to the end consumer. Seaports also participate in replenishing national budget and develop trade relations of a state, strengthening its status on the world stage. In this regard, forecasting the cargo turnover of the seaport can be considered one of the most important tasks.

The objective of the study is to build and substantiate a model for forecasting the performance of seaports, reflecting the dependence of the cargo turnover of the port industry on the main macroeconomic indicators.

The object of this study refers to Russian domestic seaports. The study has applied methods of analysis, synthesis, content analysis of sources and statistical data, including industry data, for several years, which substantiates the reliability of the results obtained. Constructing an econometric model has been based on the methods of correlation and variance analysis, as well as of least squares.

The novelty of the study refers to the application of a system of recursive equations as a forecast model for the cargo turnover of seaports, where determining factors of cargo turnover, as a result feature, are lagged dependent variables for the previous period.

The developed econometric model can be used for short-term forecasting of cargo turnover in the seaport industry, as well as for assessing its dependence on situation and level of development of foreign economic activity and the entire national economy.

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