Demand Analysis Models for Passenger Air Transportation
https://doi.org/10.30932/1992-3252-2020-18-134-144
Abstract
Analysis of demand for air transportation is a key business process around which each airline develops strategic and operational plans. Based on the demand forecast, strategic plans for development of the airline’s route network are developed, as well as budgeting, financial planning, sales and marketing plans, aircraft fleet planning, risk assessment and plans to overcome their consequences. Demand analysis also facilitates important management activities, such as decision-making, performance evaluation, and reasonable allocation of resources in specific and uncertain conditions for development of the air transport system.
Based on the specific requirements of the airline or in relation to a specific airline, an individual demand forecasting model can be developed. Such a model is an extension or a combination of various qualitative and quantitative methods for forecasting demand. The task of developing a custom model is often iterative, highly detailed, and driven by expert knowledge and can be accomplished by introducing suitable demand management software.
The task stated in the article is not a staging task for building a model, but only offers to study the available theoretical material for the analysis of demand for air transportation based on the most famous models for forecasting demand for transportation.
The method of scientific research of the problem posed in the article is the method of scientific analysis of existing models. Offer and demand for air transport services are reciprocal but asymmetric. Although the realized demand for transportation cannot take place without an appropriate level of supply, an air transport service can exist without appropriate demand. This is often found in projects that are developed with a margin that meets the expected level of demand, which may or may not be realized, or it may take several years to be realized. Regular air transport services form a supply that exists even if demand is insufficient. Several models presented in the article emphasize the conditions in which there is supply saturation, and on the other hand, the models in which demand is formed due to the mutual attractiveness of the entities that form demand are considered.
Based on the specific requirements of the airline or in relation to a specific airline, an individual demand forecasting model can be developed. Such a model is an extension or a combination of various qualitative and quantitative methods for forecasting demand. The task of developing a custom model is often iterative, highly detailed, and driven by expert knowledge and can be accomplished by introducing suitable demand management software.
The task stated in the article is not a staging task for building a model, but only offers to study the available theoretical material for the analysis of demand for air transportation based on the most famous models for forecasting demand for transportation.
The method of scientific research of the problem posed in the article is the method of scientific analysis of existing models. Offer and demand for air transport services are reciprocal but asymmetric. Although the realized demand for transportation cannot take place without an appropriate level of supply, an air transport service can exist without appropriate demand. This is often found in projects that are developed with a margin that meets the expected level of demand, which may or may not be realized, or it may take several years to be realized. Regular air transport services form a supply that exists even if demand is insufficient. Several models presented in the article emphasize the conditions in which there is supply saturation, and on the other hand, the models in which demand is formed due to the mutual attractiveness of the entities that form demand are considered.
About the Author
V. E. Zhukov
St. Petersburg State University of Civil Aviation (SPbGUGA)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Zhukov, Vasily E. – Ph.D. (Eng), Associate Professor
St. Petersburg
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Review
For citations:
Zhukov V.E. Demand Analysis Models for Passenger Air Transportation. World of Transport and Transportation. 2020;18(1):134-144. https://doi.org/10.30932/1992-3252-2020-18-134-144
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