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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">mirtr</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Мир транспорта</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>World of Transport and Transportation</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1992-3252</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Russian University of Transport (RUT)</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">mirtr-532</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ПРОБЛЕМЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ADMINISTRATION, MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Прогностическая оценка пропускных способностей каналов связи</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>PROGNOSTIC ASSESSMENT OF COMMUNICATION CHANNEL TRANSIT CAPACITY</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сафонова</surname><given-names>И. Е.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Safonova</surname><given-names>I. E.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>доктор технических наук, профессор Московского государственного университета путей сообщения (МИИТ), Москва, Россия.</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">irina.chernenko.2011@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Голдовский</surname><given-names>Я. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Goldovskiy</surname><given-names>Ya. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>кандидат технических наук, доцент МИИТ, Москва, Россия.</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">goldovsky_ym@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Желенков</surname><given-names>Б. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Zhelenkov</surname><given-names>B. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>кандидат технических наук, доцент МИИТ, Москва, Россия.</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">boriszhv@newmail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff xml:lang="en" id="aff-1"><institution>MoscowState University of Railway Engineering (MIIT), Moscow, Russia.</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>10</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>13</volume><issue>5</issue><fpage>192</fpage><lpage>197</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Сафонова И.Е., Голдовский Я.М., Желенков Б.В., 2015</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2015</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Сафонова И.Е., Голдовский Я.М., Желенков Б.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Safonova I.E., Goldovskiy Y.M., Zhelenkov B.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://mirtr.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/532">https://mirtr.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/532</self-uri><abstract><p>Предложен новый метод, позволяющий выполнить прогностическую оценку пропускной способности канала связи для минимизации времени передачи данных в телекоммуникационной сети, определить «узкие места» и избыточность пропускного ресурса на этапе проектирования. Сделаны соответствующие расчеты, обоснованы оценочные критерии производительности сетей и их элементов, величины коэффициента задержки сетевого оборудования. Результаты экспериментальной проверки показали, что полученные расчетные значения качества сетевых услуг для различных типов информации отвечают требованиям рекомендаций МСЭ-TG. 1010.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>A new method is proposed to perform predictive assessment of communication channel capacity in order to minimize transmission time in telecommunication network, to identify «bottlenecks» and redundancy of throughput resource in the design phase. Appropriate calculations are made, evaluation criteria of network performance and their elements are justified, as well as delay coefficient of network equipment. The results of experimental verification showed that obtained calculated values of the quality of network services for different types of information meet the requirements of ITU-T G.1010 recommendations.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>канал связи</kwd><kwd>телекоммуникационные сети</kwd><kwd>пропускная способность</kwd><kwd>трафик</kwd><kwd>задержка передачи</kwd><kwd>избыточность</kwd><kwd>среда передачи данных</kwd><kwd>сетевое устройство</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>communication channel</kwd><kwd>telecommunication networks</kwd><kwd>capacity</kwd><kwd>traffic</kwd><kwd>transmission delay redundancy</kwd><kwd>communication media</kwd><kwd>network device.</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Положение о департаменте информатизации открытого акционерного общества «Российские » от 18.11.2013 № 373: URL: http://jd-doc. ru/2013/noyabr-2013/4895-polozhenie-oao-rzhd-ot-18—11—373. 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