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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">mirtr</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Мир транспорта</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>World of Transport and Transportation</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1992-3252</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Russian University of Transport (RUT)</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">mirtr-234</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ИНЖЕНЕРНАЯ ЭКОЛОГИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ENGINEERING ECOLOGY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Построение вероятностной модели надежности буксы</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>CONSTRUCTION OF A PROBABILISTIC MODEL OF AXLE BOX RELIABILITY</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кругликов</surname><given-names>Е. П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kruglikov</surname><given-names>E. P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>аспирант отделения «Вагоны и вагонное хозяйство»</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Ph.D. student at the department of Cars and cars facilities</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">kruuug@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ОАО «Научно-исследовательский институт железнодорожного транспорта» (ОАО «ВНИИЖТ»), Москва, Россия</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>JSC «VNIIZhT», Moscow, Russia</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>06</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>13</volume><issue>3 (58)</issue><fpage>218</fpage><lpage>225</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Кругликов Е.П., 2015</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2015</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Кругликов Е.П.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Kruglikov E.P.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://mirtr.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/234">https://mirtr.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/234</self-uri><abstract><p>В эксплуатации букса грузового вагона подвержена значительным динамическим нагрузкам, что определяет ее сравнительно низкую долговечность и, как следствие, быстрый переход в скрытое аварийное состояние. Методика построения вероятностной модели надежности буксы позволяет определить момент перехода буксы в состояние отказа и предотвратить появление ряда негативных последствий для находящихся на линии вагонов: сход с рельс, крушение состава, непроизводительный простой вагонов и т. д. В статье установлено, что используемый автором закон распределения при проверке наработки буксы до отказа не противоречит опытным данным и сделанным расчетам.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>In operation freight car axle box is subject to considerable dynamic forces that determine its relatively low durability and, as a consequence, a rapid transition to a latent state of emergency. The method for constructing a probabilistic model of axle box reliability allows to determine a moment of axle box transition in the state of failure and to prevent the emergence of a number of negative consequences for cars being on the line: derailment, train accidents, unproductive idle hours of cars, etc. The article found out that distribution law used by the author when checking the axle box life length to failure does not contradict experimental data and performed calculations.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>железная дорога</kwd><kwd>букса</kwd><kwd>безопасность</kwd><kwd>аварийность</kwd><kwd>надежность</kwd><kwd>закон распределения</kwd><kwd>наработка до отказа</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>railway</kwd><kwd>axle box</kwd><kwd>safety</kwd><kwd>accident rate</kwd><kwd>reliability</kwd><kwd>distribution law</kwd><kwd>life length to failure</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ustich, P.A., Karpychev, V.A., Ovechnikov, M. 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