mirtrМир транспортаWorld of Transport and Transportation1992-3252Russian University of Transport (RUT)10.30932/1992-3252-2021-19-6-7mirtr-2215Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКАECONOMICSНовые подходы к управлению ценами на транспортные услугиNew Approaches to Pricing Management of Transport ServicesПастуховС. С.PastukhovS. S.

Пастухов Сергей Сергеевич − кандидат экономических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник

Москва

Pastukhov, Sergey S., Ph.D. (Economics), Leading Researcher of Scientific centre «Economics of complex projects and tariff formation»

Moscow

pastuhovsergey@bk.ruСтельмашенкоК. В.StelmashenkoK. V.

Стельмашенко Константин Владимирович − старший научный сотрудник

Москва

Stelmashenko, Konstantin V., Senior Researcher of Scientific centre «Economics of complex projects and tariff formation»

Moscow

Stelmashenko.Konstantin@vniizht.ruНаучно-исследовательский институт железнодорожного транспорта (АО «ВНИИЖТ»)РоссияRailway Research Institute (JSC VNIIZhT)Russian Federation2021281220211964860Copyright © Пастухов С.С., Стельмашенко К.В., 20212021Пастухов С.С., Стельмашенко К.В.Pastukhov S.S., Stelmashenko K.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://mirtr.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/2215

Важным аспектом повышения эффективности процессов управления на транспорте является развитие новых подходов к формированию механизмов аналитики для целей управления ценами услуг.

В современных рыночных условиях продолжают оставаться актуальными и востребованными исследования, направленные на совершенствование инструментария определения оптимальных параметров соотношения качества и стоимости обслуживания для формирования конкурентоспособной и эффективной тарифной политики.

Цель исследования, представленного в статье, – анализ и оценка перспектив реализации таких направлений по совершенствованию аппарата оценки ценовой эластичности спроса на услуги железнодорожного пассажирского транспорта, как переход к использованию нелинейных по параметрам функций моделирования поведения клиентов, а также внедрение наиболее эффективных алгоритмов из арсенала современного инструментария глобальной математической оптимизации.

Формирование выводов исследования основывается на применении механизмов системного анализа, методов экономико-математического моделирования и оптимизации, а также инструментария непараметрической статистики.

В итоге, на основе использования массива данных о спросе пассажиров фирменных поездов проведена сравнительная оценка качества моделирования ценовой эластичности спроса при использовании 15 нелинейных по параметрам функций, а также, в результате осуществления трёхэтапной процедуры сравнительного анализа эффективности работы более чем 60 алгоритмов оптимизации (включающей, в том числе, расчёт минимумов и медиан для сумм квадратов ошибок моделирования, бутстреп-анализ, тесты Краскела–Уоллеса и Манна–Уитни, а также расчёт специально разработанной авторами метрики оценки степени превосходства одного алгоритма над другим в рамках непараметрического анализа) определены наиболее перспективные механизмы поиска неизвестных параметров для негладких нелинейных функций моделирования поведения клиентов железнодорожного транспорта.

Представляется, что полученные выводы могут быть успешно использованы и применительно к другим видам транспорта при решении ими аналогичных задач формирования эффективного инструментария управления ценами транспортных услуг.

Development of new approaches to formation of analytics mechanisms for the purpose of pricing management of services is an important aspect of increasing the efficiency of transport management processes.

Research aimed at improving the tools for determining the optimal parameters of the ratio of quality and price of service for formation of a competitive and efficient tariff policy continues to remain relevant and in demand in modern market conditions. The objective of the study, presented in the article, is to analyse and evaluate the prospects for implementation of the areas to improve the apparatus for assessing the price elasticity of demand for railway passenger transport services as the transition to the use of non-linear parameters in terms of customer behaviour modelling functions, as well as introduction of the most effective algorithms from the set of modern global mathematical optimisation tools.

The research conclusions are based on the use of system analysis mechanisms, methods of economic and mathematical modelling and optimisation, as well as of non-parametric statistics tools.

The results based on the use of an array of data on the demand of passengers of branded trains include: a comparative assessment of quality of modelling the price elasticity of demand using 15 functions that are nonlinear in terms of parameters; the most promising tools of the search for unknown parameters for non-smooth nonlinear functions for modelling the behaviour of railway customers are identified based on a three-stage procedure for comparative analysis of the performance of more than 60 optimisation algorithms (including the calculation of minima and medians for the sums of squares of modelling errors, bootstrap analysis, Kruskal– Wallace and Mann–Whitney tests, as well as the calculation of a metric specially developed by the authors for assessing the degree of superiority of one algorithm over another within the framework of non-parametric analysis).

The findings seem able to be successfully used in relation to other modes of transport in solving similar problems of developing an effective toolkit for managing the prices of transport services.

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